{"id":8783,"date":"2026-02-24T12:22:47","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T18:22:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/westplexnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/24\/how-a-handful-of-states-and-districts-could-decide-who-runs-congress\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T12:22:47","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T18:22:47","slug":"how-a-handful-of-states-and-districts-could-decide-who-runs-congress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/westplexnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/24\/how-a-handful-of-states-and-districts-could-decide-who-runs-congress\/","title":{"rendered":"How a handful of states and districts could decide who runs Congress"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"The
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The U.S. Capitol with snow and ice on the steps on Jan. 29, 2026. (Photo by Jennifer Shutt\/States Newsroom)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

WASHINGTON \u2014 Republicans and Democrats will spend billions of dollars and countless hours campaigning throughout the country ahead of November\u2019s midterm elections, even though control of Congress likely will be decided by a relatively small number of toss-up races and the voters who actually turn out to cast a ballot for their preferred candidate.<\/p>\n

There are just four Senate races out of 35 and 18 House districts out of 435 where each candidate has even odds of winning, according to analysis from The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. The rest are categorized as leaning, likely or solidly for one party or the other. Some ratings potentially will still shift in a turbulent election year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

When combined with the generally low turnout for midterm elections, which only topped 50% once during the last century, an especially narrow margin of Americans could determine whether President Donald Trump and Republicans retain their trifecta political control of Washington for the last two years of Trump\u2019s term.<\/p>\n

A Senate flip from Republican to Democratic control would have sweeping impacts, including which nominees for vacancies in the Trump administration, federal judgeships and any openings on the Supreme Court are confirmed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A House shift from red to blue would likely determine whether Trump and possibly members of his Cabinet face impeachment proceedings in that chamber.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The most likely outcome experts see at this early stage is for Republicans to lose the House and keep the Senate, possibly with a slimmer majority in the upper chamber. However, that could change in the months ahead as primary election results determine which candidates advance to the November general elections.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The\u00a0first primaries<\/a> are scheduled for March 3 and roll through September, with 16 in June alone.<\/p>\n

Highly publicized efforts by several Republican and Democratic state legislatures\u00a0to redraw the boundaries<\/a> of their U.S. House seats could also be a variable. But, so far, neither party has gained any real advantage, according to\u00a0analysis<\/a> from Erin Covey, Cook Political Report\u2019s editor for the House.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile it\u2019s not clear how many states will have new maps in 2026, we project that the likeliest scenario is a wash, with neither party netting seats due to redistricting,\u201d she wrote.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The stakes will be high for the handful of competitive general election races and the attention there will be intense. Leaders from both political parties, as well as outside groups, are likely to focus their spending and campaign ads on those relatively few contests and voters that will determine control of Congress.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump impeachment fears<\/h4>\n

Trump has repeatedly lamented the historic norm that a president\u2019s party tends to lose seats during the midterms, including in January when he addressed House Republicans at the Kennedy Center.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWhether it\u2019s a Republican or a Democrat, whoever wins the presidency, the other party wins the midterm,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd it doesn\u2019t make sense because \u2026 we\u2019ve had the most successful first year of any president in history.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump also warned that if Republicans lose the House, he\u2019ll face impeachment proceedings for the third time. He was impeached twice during his first administration.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou got to win the midterms because if we don\u2019t win the midterms, it\u2019s just going to be, I mean, they\u2019ll find a reason to impeach me,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019ll get impeached.\u201d<\/p>\n

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., are confident GOP candidates will win enough races to ensure they maintain control over what bills come to the floor and which are held back from debate.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cI think they\u2019re going to give it to the grown-ups,\u201d Johnson said during a press conference in early February. \u201cI think the Republicans will be able to continue and grow our majority to keep governing.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

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U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., talks with reporters inside the Capitol building in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025. (Photo by Jennifer Shutt\/States Newsroom)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Johnson said during a separate press conference he believes Americans should have confidence in the results of the midterm elections, but pressed for the Senate to pass\u00a0a new, nationwide voter ID requirement<\/a> that House lawmakers recently approved.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think we can trust the outcome of the election but what I will tell you is there is still a great concern that in certain pockets of the country that there\u2019s not strict enforcement of the laws,\u201d Johnson said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It is illegal for noncitizens to vote in federal elections and anyone found guilty could face fines and up to a year in prison. There are limited instances of people not eligible to vote actually casting a ballot, according to\u00a0analysis<\/a> from the Bipartisan Policy Center of data compiled by the Heritage Foundation, an especially conservative think tank.\u00a0<\/p>\n

BPC\u2019s examination \u201cfound only 77 instances of noncitizens voting between 1999 and 2023\u201d and that \u201cthere is no evidence that noncitizen voting has ever been significant enough to impact an election\u2019s outcome.\u201d<\/p>\n

Democrats battle for control<\/h4>\n

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, both from New York, are equally as confident as their GOP counterparts that Democrats will regain power, though primary elections are a factor.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jeffries said during a mid-February press conference he supports every single House Democrat seeking reelection, calling primaries \u201ca reality\u201d of the country\u2019s political system while also taking a swipe at the Senate.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York speaks during a rally outside the U.S. Capitol just hours before a federal government shutdown on Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025. (Photo by Ashley Murray\/States Newsroom)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cEvery two years we have to go back to the people to make an argument, to persuade them to renew our two-year employment contract. That\u2019s just a way of life,\u201d he said. \u201cIt must be nice to have a six-year term. But we don\u2019t have the luxury, so that\u2019s going to mean in many districts across the country that there will be active primaries.\u201d<\/p>\n

Democrats need to pick up four more Senate seats to retake control of that chamber, particularly long odds given this year\u2019s map.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Cook Political Report\u00a0classifies<\/a> Senate races in Georgia, Maine, Michigan and North Carolina as toss-ups, giving Democrats two possible additions if they can hold onto the open seat in the Wolverine State and Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia secures reelection.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The open New Hampshire seat leans toward remaining in the hands of a Democrat, while Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan and Ohio Sen. Jon Husted\u2019s seats lean toward those Republicans securing reelection.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The open Minnesota seat will likely remain blue, the report forecasts. The open Iowa seat and Texas are likely to stay Republican. The remainder of the Senate campaigns are rated as solid for Democrats or Republicans.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Besides the 18 House seats\u00a0categorized<\/a> as toss-ups by Cook, another 14 lean toward Democrats and four lean toward Republicans. That means just 8% of House races are truly or somewhat competitive, though that is likely to fluctuate after the primaries determine which candidates advance to the general election.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The GOP holds a very thin 218-214 House majority, with three vacancies, making even a few Republican losses highly problematic for that party\u2019s leadership team and beneficial for Democrats.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2018Even a few seats might make a difference\u2019<\/h4>\n

Timothy M. Hagle, associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, said during midterm elections \u201cthe party that\u2019s not in control of the White House usually does pretty well, picks up some seats and so forth.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd so, given how closely divided the U.S. House and Senate are, even a few seats might make a difference.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hagle said people who don\u2019t feel strongly about one political party or another, often referred to as independent or swing voters, will expect candidates to provide solutions for \u201ckitchen table issues,\u201d like jobs, health care and the cost of living.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cYou\u2019ve got to reach beyond your base if you expect to win an election,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

But Hagle noted it\u2019s increasingly difficult for politicians to convince people to vote, even as the internet and social media have become woven into everyday life, giving candidates a better chance to have their messages heard directly.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Voter turnout\u00a0data<\/a> from the University of Florida Election Lab shows fewer than half of eligible voters cast ballots in midterm elections during the last century, with the exception of 2018, when it reached a peak of 50.1%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd one aspect of this that\u2019s a little more on the modern side is that our politics today is so partisan, it\u2019s hyper-partisan, and I think it has turned a lot of people off,\u201d Hagle said. \u201cAnd so they really just don\u2019t want to get involved in it.\u201d<\/p>\n

When that\u2019s rolled in with mid-cycle redistricting in several states and the longer term decline in competitive seats due to gerrymandering, Hagle said, it\u2019s led some politicians to change how they communicate with voters.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cYou do see attempts by the parties to talk about \u2026 things they\u2019ve accomplished,\u201d he said. \u201cRepublicans are in control, so they have to do this. And Democrats will say, \u2018Well, here\u2019s sort of what we want to do.\u2019 But one problem there is that it\u2019s often easier to motivate people through fear.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIn other words, if a party is doing a good job, people will say, \u2018Okay, good. That\u2019s sort of what you were hired to do. So keep at it.\u2019 Whereas if you say, \u2018Oh, this party, if you leave them in control or put them in control, they\u2019re going to do these horrible things.\u2019 That tends to motivate,\u201d Hagle added. \u201cAnd that\u2019s one of the reasons why you see such toxic messaging.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The U.S. Capitol with snow and ice on the steps on Jan. 29, 2026. (Photo by Jennifer Shutt\/States Newsroom) WASHINGTON \u2014 Republicans and Democrats will spend billions of dollars and countless hours campaigning throughout the country ahead of November\u2019s midterm elections, even though control of Congress likely will be decided by a relatively small number…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8784,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kadence_starter_templates_imported_post":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8783","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nHow a handful of states and districts could decide who runs Congress - WestplexNews.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/westplexnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/24\/how-a-handful-of-states-and-districts-could-decide-who-runs-congress\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How a handful of states and districts could decide who runs Congress - WestplexNews.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The U.S. Capitol with snow and ice on the steps on Jan. 29, 2026. 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