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Senate Minority Leader Doug Beck, a Democrat from Affton, won’t reveal how Democrats plan to disrupt the opening weeks of the 2026 legislative session. He is shown speaking against proposed Senate rule changes during the special session for redistricting in September (Annelise Hanshaw\/Missouri Independent).<\/p>\n
Missouri Republicans played power politics in 2025, crushing Democratic opposition in the Legislature on major issues from <\/span>abortion<\/span><\/a> to <\/span>congressional redistricting<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n The consequences of those moves will be felt this year. Voters in November will ultimately determine if Republicans went too far as they steamrolled measures to passage.<\/span><\/p>\n Missouri GOP senator slams party leaders for forcing vote on bills without allowing debate<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n But before that, Democrats intend to make state Senate Republicans pay for invoking the rule to shut off debate \u2014 known as the previous question \u2014 for the first time since 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n With fewer than one-third of the seats in each chamber, the filibuster in the state Senate is practically the only means for the minority party to stall or kill legislation. That is why Democrats are determined to extract a price for using the previous question, but they aren\u2019t saying how that will play out in the annual legislative session that starts Wednesday.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cAs far as what that session looks like, everyone will have to wait and see,\u201d Senate Minority Leader Doug Beck, an Affton Democrat, told The Independent last month. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The only affirmative duty of the General Assembly each year is to pass a state budget. But with a <\/span>dwindling surplus<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>revenues in decline<\/span><\/a>, and Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe pushing for <\/span>elimination of the state income tax<\/span><\/a>, the prospects for easy agreement look murky.<\/span><\/p>\n The list of other items awaiting action include issues that generate bipartisan support, such as addressing the growing wait list of people being held in jails who need court-ordered <\/span>mental health treatments<\/span><\/a>; legislation intended to <\/span>improve maternal health<\/span><\/a>; and personal agendas of departing lawmakers, including term-limited Senate President Pro Tem Cindy O\u2019Laughlin\u2019s bill to shut down <\/span>solar power development<\/span><\/a> and desire to regulate <\/span>pharmacy benefit managers<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n There are 10 seats in the state Senate certain to change hands, and all have attracted candidates currently in the Missouri House. Legislators looking to move up \u2014 including Missouri House Speaker Jon Patterson, a Republican running for the state Senate \u2014 will want to take election year achievements home to voters.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cYou never know about the Senate, but the House is going to do business as usual, and we\u2019ll just see how things play out in the Senate,\u201d Patterson said in an interview with The Independent.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/strong><\/p>\n \t<\/p>\n When Senate Republican leaders used the previous question rule at the end of last year\u2019s session, it was the first time the motion to shut off debate was invoked during a regular session since 2017.<\/span><\/p>\n After the votes passing bills to undo voter-approved paid leave for workers and putting repeal of the 2024 abortion rights amendment on this year\u2019s ballot, Democrats vowed there would be a price to pay in 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cWhat we\u2019re doing today is a failure of the Senate,\u201d state Sen. Stephen Webber, a Democrat from Columbia said on the final day of the 2025 session. \u201cAnd when there\u2019s a failure in the Senate, there needs to be a response, and that response can\u2019t last forever, but that response has to happen, and it has to be painful, and has to make us all understand that when the Senate doesn\u2019t function as a body, we all lose.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n The offense, in Democratic eyes, was repeated during the September special session on redistricting, and aggravated by a <\/span>rules change<\/span><\/a> that sidestepped every opportunity Democrats could use to stall proceedings.<\/span><\/p>\n Democrats have to maintain their stall long enough to show that their views must be respected and that the state Senate is designed to be a less partisan body than the House, said state Sen. Tracy McCreery, a Democrat from Olivette.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cOne of the challenges with working with some of the newer senators is that they brought the House mentality with them, and they don\u2019t have respect for the institution of the Senate,\u201d McCreery said. \u201cIn the Senate we have thoughtful, deliberative conversations, and we don\u2019t just ram things through and not allow for debate.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n O\u2019Laughlin, asked by text about the opening-day atmosphere she expects as she begins her last session as Senate leader, replied only with a head-exploding emoji.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/strong><\/p>\n \t<\/p>\n The gap between estimated state general revenue and appropriations in this year\u2019s budget is $2.6 billion. Part of the difference, for state cash flow needs, is artificial because it is new spending on multi-year construction projects or money set aside for unfilled jobs in state government.<\/span><\/p>\n The rest must come from the state\u2019s accumulated surplus, which has been diminishing and could be depleted <\/span>within two fiscal years<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n Kehoe has warned his budget proposal on Jan. 13 will be written to bring spending into balance with current revenue. That task will be complicated by the need to <\/span>replace up to $1.2 billion<\/span><\/a> in spending from non-general revenue funds with general tax revenue.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThere are only painful budget bills that have money to cut from,\u201d said state Rep. Betsy Fogle, a Democrat from Springfield. \u201cAnd typically in our state, when we have to face budget cuts, we see that in K-12 education, higher education and (appropriation bills) that include things like social services and the social safety net.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Kehoe\u2019s also expected on Jan. 13 to outline his plan for weaning state government off the income tax. With the tax representing 65% of last year\u2019s $13.4 billion in revenue, the question will be where to find replacement money.<\/span><\/p>\n Republican members will be anxious to hear the details.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ll have to see what that proposal will be and what revenue replacements or what revenue sources will be created from those changes,\u201d said state Rep. Jeff Vernetti, a Republican from Camdenton.<\/span><\/p>\n Local taxes will also be a major question. State Rep. Tim Taylor, a Bunceton Republican, led a House committee that spent the summer <\/span>studying property taxes<\/span><\/a>. There are a number of Republicans who want to replace the property tax system with sales taxes.<\/span><\/p>\n That could work in some areas but wouldn\u2019t generate enough revenue for rural areas, Taylor said in a recent interview. And for areas that could generate the revenue, the tax rate could be prohibitive.<\/span><\/p>\n The state imposes a 4.225% sales tax but local option taxes mean the rate paid at retail in most locations is much higher. And the sales tax is one place to go for replacement revenue for the income tax.<\/span><\/p>\n That is unlikely to be popular with voters, Taylor said.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe thought of increasing sales tax again is really going to put that to pushing 10 cents on $1 or something, and that\u2019s pretty substantial,\u201d Taylor said.<\/span><\/p>\n Local governments will be watching both debates closely, said Steve Hobbs, executive director of the Missouri Association of Counties.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cFirst and foremost this needs to be fair to the citizens of Missouri,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n Property tax is an immensely complex issue to tackle, Hobbs said. One reason, he noted, is that state school aid is tied to local tax effort.<\/span><\/p>\n The Missouri School Funding Modernization Task Force, appointed by Kehoe, is halfway through its study of school funding. Changes to how local taxes are imposed would change the formula calculations.<\/span><\/p>\n And support for education depends on reliable revenue from state taxes, which are about to be overhauled, Hobbs noted.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cYou have two legs of your education funding stool you are talking about putting under construction,\u201d Hobbs said. \u201cThat is a big lift.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n <\/strong><\/p>\n \t<\/p>\n In early December, O\u2019Laughlin wrote on social media about a <\/span>frustrating experience she had<\/span><\/a> attempting to obtain a prescription while in Jefferson City. Most of the time, she wrote, she gets her medications from a local pharmacy in Clarence, but was frustrated by mixups and miscommunications she blamed on pharmacy benefit managers.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201c<\/span>What is the result of this wondrous cost saving set up? Absolutely nothing good for the customers,\u201d O\u2019Laughlin wrote.<\/span><\/p>\n Pharmacy benefit managers, or PBMs, are the mechanisms used by insurance companies to control prescription costs for their plans. Techniques include preferential contracts for particular pharmacy companies, with higher reimbursements or dispensing fees for high-volume chain stores and online providers.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201c<\/span>The rural areas are hardest hit because their pharmacist is also their healthcare advocate, often knowing the patients and literally their entire medical history,\u201d O\u2019Laughlin wrote in response to a question from The Independent.<\/span><\/p>\n O\u2019Laughlin endorsed legislation filed by state Sen. Travis Fitzwater, a Republican from Holts Summit, to end preferential clauses in PBM contracts.<\/span><\/p>\n Similar legislation last year drew a <\/span>coalition of opponents<\/span><\/a> that, along with insurance companies, included the Missouri Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Missouri AFL-CIO.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The opposition will be daunting, said Abe Funk, owner of John\u2019s Pharmacy in southeast Missouri. Funk\u2019s business operates in six locations, including two in communities with fewer than 1,000 people.<\/span><\/p>\n Funk is a member of the Missouri Pharmacy Business Council, which lobbies for independent pharmacies. He\u2019s been calling legislators in his area and will personally visit the Capitol to push for the bill.<\/span><\/p>\n To overcome opposition, this year\u2019s bill will focus on revealing the details of how PBMs pay claims. That\u2019s helped change some minds, he said.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThey like the idea of transparency,\u201d Funk said. \u201cThey like the idea of actually being able to see what their claims are, their payments. And so we anticipate a different climate this session than we have in the past.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n O\u2019Laughlin\u2019s long-standing opposition to renewable energy development is being ramped up by a <\/span>5,000-acre solar power project<\/span><\/a> in Henry County in western Missouri. The project was developed over several years but only revealed publicly at the start of 2024.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n In December 2024, after two incumbent commissioners were defeated for reelection, the Henry County Commission approved an incentive package for the solar project that included $650 million in public-sponsored financing.<\/span><\/p>\n A lawsuit invoking a rarely used law requiring the courts to <\/span>investigate public contracts<\/span><\/a> is heading to trial in October. O\u2019Laughlin has <\/span>filed a bill<\/span><\/a> for a moratorium on new solar project construction, including stopping work on projects underway but not finished, through Dec. 31, 2027.<\/span><\/p>\n The solar projects use valuable farmland, seek tax abatements and other preferential treatment and add little to local economies, O\u2019Laughlin wrote in an email to The Independent.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cI honestly see this as tearing a giant hole in the fabric of our communities socially, fiscally, environmentally,\u201d O\u2019Laughlin wrote to The Independent. \u201cWhat is there to like about them?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n <\/strong><\/p>\n \t<\/p>\n No Democrat has won a statewide election since 2018, and results from 2024 show how daunting it will be for Kirkwood Democrat <\/span>Quentin Wilson<\/span><\/a>, a state department director from 1998 to 2001, to deny incumbent Republican State Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick a second term.<\/span><\/p>\n The auditor\u2019s office is the only statewide race on the ballot. Last year, despite spending $20 million, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Lucas Kunce received just 41.8% of the vote, only two percentage points more than gubernatorial candidate Crystal Quade, who spent about $2 million.<\/span><\/p>\n But the difficult statewide race for Democrats doesn\u2019t mean this year\u2019s voting won\u2019t give the party an opportunity to impose significant losses on Republicans. The same voters that gave GOP candidates landslide wins for statewide office handed them defeats on abortion rights, following up on prior liberal ballot measure wins on Medicaid expansion and marijuana legalization.<\/span><\/p>\n Republicans have put a measure reinstating the state\u2019s near total <\/span>abortion ban<\/span><\/a> on the ballot, along with a proposal to change the way <\/span>majorities are calculated<\/span><\/a> for constitutional amendments proposed by initiative. And the redistricting plan intended to give the GOP an additional seat in the U.S. House faces a possible referendum vote.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Controversial ballot measures can bring hundreds of thousands of Missourians out for an otherwise unexciting election. That occurred In 2018 and 2020, when a right to work referendum and Medicaid expansion, respectively, were on August primary ballots. In those years, nearly 300,000 more people voted in the Democratic primary than the average of other elections since 2000.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Millions have already been spent on ballot measures for this year and the total for all will likely exceed $100 million by the time voters go to the polls.<\/span><\/p>\n But even a big surge of Democratic voters would only dent, not break, the GOP majority, said Terry Smith, political science professor at Columbia College.<\/span><\/p>\n Only 21 of 163 Missouri House seats were decided by 10 percentage points or less in 2024, and early financial reports indicate that only two of the 17 state Senate seats on the ballot appear to be truly competitive in November.<\/span><\/p>\n The best result for Democrats, Smith said, would be to break the two-thirds supermajority Republicans enjoy in each chamber.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n After the 2024 election, Republicans held 111 seats in the House and 24 of 34 seats in the Senate.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cDo Republicans\u00a0 have anything to worry about? I don\u2019t think so,\u201d Smith said in an interview last week with The Independent.<\/span><\/p>\n In deeply Republican districts, even if the ballot measures draw a larger Democratic vote, it won\u2019t be enough to change the outcome, Smith said.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cIf you go from a district that is 75-25 to 60-40,\u201d he said, \u201cyou pick up 15 points and you still lose by a landslide.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n The Independent\u2019s Anna Spoerre, Steph Quinn and Jason Hancock contributed to this report.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n GET THE MORNING HEADLINES.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
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Senate dysfunction<\/h4>\n
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Budget and taxes<\/h4>\n
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O\u2019Laughlin\u2019s agenda<\/h4>\n
Election year prospects<\/h4>\n
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