{"id":8376,"date":"2026-01-02T10:21:19","date_gmt":"2026-01-02T16:21:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/westplexnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/02\/chiefs-move-to-kansas-leaves-experts-grappling-with-possible-revenue-drain-massive-unknowns\/"},"modified":"2026-01-02T10:21:19","modified_gmt":"2026-01-02T16:21:19","slug":"chiefs-move-to-kansas-leaves-experts-grappling-with-possible-revenue-drain-massive-unknowns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/westplexnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/02\/chiefs-move-to-kansas-leaves-experts-grappling-with-possible-revenue-drain-massive-unknowns\/","title":{"rendered":"Chiefs\u2019 move to Kansas leaves experts grappling with possible revenue drain, massive unknowns"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"A<\/p>\n

Kansas leaders announced a deal to move the Kansas City Chiefs to Kansas, but uncertainties around what the final deal will be have raised concerns about what it could cost taxpayers down the road. State lawmakers approved the use of STAR bonds to build a new stadium. The governor will announce the deal in a news conference at the Docking building. (Photo by Anna Kaminski\/Kansas Reflector)<\/p>\n

TOPEKA \u2014 Moving the Chiefs to Kansas will spur economic development, but the complexity and lack of details about the deal make it difficult to determine what taxpayers will ultimately pay.<\/span><\/p>\n

The announcement that the Chiefs and state of Kansas will spend an estimated $4 billion to build a domed stadium in Wyandotte County surrounded by an entertainment district and a team headquarters and training facility in Johnson County has prompted questions about whether Kansans will lose money on the deal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Economic growth in a large and so-far-undefined area in Wyandotte and Johnson counties will be reserved to pay down STAR bonds over the next two or three decades. The Chiefs also could enjoy property tax subsidies and other financial support if economic development programs are implemented locally.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is accurate when state leaders say no new taxes will be implemented to move the Chiefs across the border, said Ian Graves, a Prairie Village City Council member and self-described public finance policy wonk who has been studying the details.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the project may require new taxes down the road to cover the loss of revenue growth that would normally flow into the state\u2019s coffers, he said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Chiefs project will<\/span> be funded through a 60-40 public-private partnership, according to terms posted online<\/span><\/a> by the Kansas Department of Commerce. The state\u2019s 60% of funding will come from a mix of <\/span>STAR bonds<\/span><\/a>, or sales tax and revenue bonds, and funds in the Attracting Professional Sports to Kansas Fund, which is revenue from iLottery and sports betting.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

STAR bonds also will be repaid with 100% of liquor sales tax collected in the district.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

According to a Commerce Department fact sheet, the state expects 20,000 new jobs to be created during the construction phase and more than 4,000 new permanent jobs at the stadium and entertainment district that will surround the stadium. The annual estimated economic impact is expected to be $1 billion, and the Chiefs will pay $7 million in annual rent.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Graves said his primary concern is with how the project freezes future revenue growth.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe are diverting natural revenue growth over time that we rely on to basically account for the increase of price in goods and services that governments require,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you look at sales tax revenue growth, just naturally, it floats with inflation because as the price of purchased goods go up, sales tax revenues also climb, and then that increased revenue goes back to be able to support the city or state.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Graves said his interest isn\u2019t part of his Prairie Village role but came about because the city recently passed bonds and he had spent time learning about their mechanisms. He used his computer science background <\/span>to build an online tool<\/span><\/a> to take a deep dive into costs associated with the Chiefs project.<\/span><\/p>\n

The tool allows users to change assumptions such as the interest rate, repayment period and principal amount.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cEven after I made it, I\u2019m like this still isn\u2019t super easy to understand,\u201d he said. \u201cYou can set worst-case scenarios, but basically it\u2019s just a lot of money going to it, and you can see that most of it is just regular old sales and use tax. The narrative about alcohol and gambling revenues, that\u2019s just kind of window dressing. It\u2019s just sales taxes that are powering this thing.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Toggling different scenarios on Graves\u2019 STAR bonds financing model, the state\u2019s portion over time \u2014 including principal and interest \u2014 could be anywhere from $3 billion to $4 billion and on up.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Paul Byrne, economics professor at Washburn University, said moving the Chiefs will definitely generate new economic activity for Kansas.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSome of the critics kind of downplay that, but you\u2019re having a lot of people crossing the state line, they\u2019re going to spend a lot of money,\u201d he said. \u201cThat money is going to have a multiplier effect, and that\u2019s going to have an impact on the revenue. So that I definitely take as a given.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The multiplier effect refers to the idea that money spent in a community has a ripple effect. A cook at a new restaurant receives a paycheck on which they paid taxes. They then buy groceries at local stores, which fuels more jobs and income in the community.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the question is whether that growth will justify the subsidies going to build the Chiefs\u2019 facilities, Byrne said.<\/span><\/p>\n

He expressed concern about the way the STAR bonds will be set up and what challenges that will present for repayment and the state budget. Much is still unknown, he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Lt.
Lt. Gov. and Secretary of Commerce David Toland will determine the final boundaries of the STAR bonds district when the bonds are issued to pay for the 60% investment the state will make in building the Kansas City Chiefs stadium, headquarters and training facility. (Photo by Anna Kaminski\/Kansas Reflector)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

STAR bonds<\/h4>\n

Kansas STAR bonds are issued to finance major development projects, and under usual circumstances, must be for projects where the capital investment exceeds $75 million and projected annual gross sales are $75 million, <\/span>according to the Kansas Department of Commerce<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The bonds must not pay for more than 50% of the development and are typically repaid over 20 years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, to entice the Chiefs and possibly the Royals across the state border, the Kansas Legislature in 2024 <\/span>passed a special session law<\/span><\/a> that would allow STAR bonds to pay for up to 70% of a project and upped the repayment timeframe to 30 years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

STAR bonds typically are paid through state retail sales tax dollars generated by the district, which is determined by the Commerce Department. For instance, if the bond district had $1 million in state sales tax revenue in the 12 months preceding the date the bonds were issued, that sets the base value at $1 million. If sales tax revenue jumped to $6 million after the new development, the new revenue of $5 million would go to debt repayment.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, new regulations regarding stadium development allow the base value to be changed, Byrne said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt gives the secretary of commerce the right to pick any base value,\u201d Byrne said. \u201cThat jumped out at me because they could just make everything zero. If they choose a base value that\u2019s below what would typically be a base value, well then you\u2019re even more clearly capturing sales tax revenue or property tax revenue, or whatever would have gone to the state and to the local government.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Although the state has approved using its sales tax revenue in the proposed district to repay the STAR bonds, other taxing authorities in the district, such as Wyandotte County and Olathe, will vote on whether to fund the project with a percentage or all of local sales taxes collected.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bob North, the Commerce Department\u2019s chief counsel, said changing that base value hasn\u2019t been discussed. But he said state legislators and leaders have made it clear they don\u2019t want to set a base that would have any effect on existing income.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re not going to set an artificially low base, because that could actually have an impact on state general fund revenues,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Bob
Bob North, chief counsel at the Kansas Department of Commerce, said some details about the stadium deal with the Kansas City Chiefs won\u2019t be finalized until the STAR bonds are issued. (Photo by Sherman Smith\/Kansas Reflector)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The state budget<\/h4>\n

The Chiefs economic development package will affect state revenue, North said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe think some of that foregone revenue will be made up with increased income tax and some of the other kinds of economic benefits we\u2019re going to see from the Chiefs being here,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

North stressed that only the state portion of the sales tax revenue increase in the bond district will repay the Chiefs bonds. Local governments will have to determine whether they are going to pledge county or city sales tax revenue to the STAR bonds.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If local communities choose not to participate, it would have a negative financial impact on the project, North said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSTAR bonds are built on the premise that it\u2019s going to be a partnership between the state and the local units of government,\u201d he said. \u201cWe anticipate both Olathe and Kansas City, Kansas, unified government voting to participate in the STAR bonds. It\u2019s really important, and something that we\u2019re monitoring very closely.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But would it be a deal breaker if they don\u2019t participate?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s hard to look nine to 12 months into the future,\u201d North said. \u201cThe answer to that is going to depend on the kind of economic conditions that are present in nine to 12 months, interest rates and general economic conditions and things like that. So we can\u2019t definitively say at this point in time what that impact might be.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The participation of local governments concerns Graves, who said taking away the growth in revenue could put the area in a position of being unable to keep up with annual increases in the cost of doing business.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt all creeps up on you over time,\u201d he said. \u201cThat\u2019ll happen about two election cycles out, is when that will really bite. In one or two election cycles, it\u2019s going to be like, \u2018Gosh, we really have this budget shortfall, and it\u2019s because we\u2019ve nuked off all this natural growth from Wyandotte and JoCo from feeding into the state coffers.\u2019 And so how are they going to plug that hole? Are they going to cut services? They going to raise taxes? They going to do both? And that will be a question for future Kansas. Not cool just-got-the-Chiefs Kansas, right?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"This
This rendering by the Kansas Department of Commerce shows possible STAR bonds district borders, but Bob North, commerce chief counsel, said the district won\u2019t encompass all of Wyandotte County, as shown here. (Submitted)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The map<\/h4>\n

A map put out by the Kansas Department of Commerce highlights possible boundaries for the STAR bond district, which is key to determine how much of an area\u2019s sales tax revenue will be pulled into paying for the stadium.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The map is labeled \u201cillustrative\u201d and notes the final boundaries will be determined by the secretary of commerce. When overlaid on a county map, it looks as if the boundaries could include all of Wyandotte County, but North said that won\u2019t be the case.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The district will be finalized by the secretary closer to when the STAR bonds are issued, which will be in six to eight months, he said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe size of the district is going to be contingent, to a certain extent, on what we need to do to finance the bonds,\u201d North said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For instance, if interest rates drop two points in the next few months, the district would have a smaller footprint, and the opposite is also true, he said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe unknown is the exact site in Wyandotte County, and until that piece is resolved, we can\u2019t really finalize what Wyandotte County is going to look like,\u201d he said. \u201cIt certainly will not be the entire county. The STAR bond district will be the stadium and then the mixed-use development that\u2019s adjacent to the stadium.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

North said the STAR bond act allows the commerce secretary to reduce or add to the district\u2019s size after it is set up, if necessary, but he could only think of instances in which the land area has been reduced.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"In
In an economic impact study done by contractor Canyon Research Southwest Inc., it is estimated the construction phase will generate more than 20,000 added jobs, with significant economic benefits. (Screen capture from Economic Impact Study)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Up in the air<\/h4>\n

Some parts of the plan are uncertain, such as whether the Chiefs will take advantage of the state\u2019s <\/span>High Performance Incentive Program<\/span><\/a>, or HPIP, Byrne said. The program provides a 10% income tax credit for eligible capital investments, with the threshold in five metro counties, including Wyandotte and Johnson, set at $1 million.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It also provides a sales tax exemption that can be used on the company\u2019s capital investments, and a training tax credit up to $50,000.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The HPIP is for companies that locate their headquarters in the state and pay above-average wages. North said it is a statutory program and isn\u2019t included in the stadium bill, so if the Chiefs meet the criteria laid out, they can participate.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Byrne said visiting players on opposing teams would likely pay tax for their work in the state, which would be a benefit to state revenue. In addition, other events held at the stadium during the offseason could bring in revenue.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Although the published STAR bonds district map isn\u2019t finalized, it indicates the district will be large, he said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

One misconception he\u2019s seen around STAR bonds is confusion over where the sales tax revenue comes from to pay off the bonds, Byrne said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cPeople think there\u2019s some special way where they only include the Chiefs stadium. It captures everything,\u201d he said. \u201cSomebody goes in the middle of May and goes to a restaurant, that\u2019ll be captured as well. And clearly that person probably isn\u2019t going there just because there\u2019s a stadium there, because the Chiefs are there. That\u2019s the misconception.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Graves said other uncertainties are outlined in the STAR bonds terms, which open the possibility of setting up other taxing districts such as TIFs, or tax increment financing districts. A TIF district does what STAR bonds do, except with property taxes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Property tax values are frozen at the beginning of the project, and when improvements generate additional property taxes, those dollars would pay for improvements.<\/span><\/p>\n

The STAR bonds terms with the Chiefs also open the possibility to establish community improvement districts and transportation improvement districts, Graves said.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAll of those can be set up, and they do not count toward the public portion of the project\u2019s cap,\u201d he said. \u201cWhat I take that to mean is that Wyandotte could, in theory, establish something like a TIF in the surrounding area around the Chiefs stadium, at the behest of the Chiefs or the developers working for the Chiefs, or what have you, to also capture revenues on the property tax side and divert that to developing those districts.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"The
One of the unknowns about the Chiefs development is exactly where it will be located. It is expected to be on land near the Kansas Speedway in the Village West development of Kansas City, Kansas. (Photo by Grace Hills for Kansas Reflector)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Yay or nay?<\/h4>\n

Both Graves and Byrne pointed to economists who, in general, say stadium subsidy deals are not winners for states.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Byrne said he can\u2019t ignore the economic development that will occur.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Unlike some projects that are controversial because they simply shift economic activity from one part of a town or county to another part, Byrne said shifting economic dollars from MIssouri to Kansas will positively affect Kansas.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a reason you had those border wars for all those years,\u201d Byrne said. \u201cIf you can get someone across that state line, it is going to generate pretty significant economic activity.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

North pointed to expected job creation, which will increase state income tax collections, and property taxes from major developments that occur. That assumes local areas don\u2019t set up a TIF district that would subsidize the development by nixing property taxes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Graves said he\u2019s \u201cagnostic\u201d about whether the state should have fought to bring the Chiefs to Kansas.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhat I wish we could be more clear about is how this financing works,\u201d he said. \u201cBecause I don\u2019t feel like we\u2019re being transparent with the residents about where this money is coming from, and what public services they rely on that rely on this increment that naturally grows. I don\u2019t think we\u2019re being straightforward. After 10 years of growth, this could be hundreds of millions of dollars diverted every year to financing this thing, and that\u2019s a hole in the budget. What\u2019s going to flood that hole?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

This story was originally produced by Kansas Reflector<\/a>, which is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network which includes Missouri Independent, and is supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kansas leaders announced a deal to move the Kansas City Chiefs to Kansas, but uncertainties around what the final deal will be have raised concerns about what it could cost taxpayers down the road. State lawmakers approved the use of STAR bonds to build a new stadium. The governor will announce the deal in a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8377,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kadence_starter_templates_imported_post":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nChiefs\u2019 move to Kansas leaves experts grappling with possible revenue drain, massive unknowns - WestplexNews.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/westplexnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/02\/chiefs-move-to-kansas-leaves-experts-grappling-with-possible-revenue-drain-massive-unknowns\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chiefs\u2019 move to Kansas leaves experts grappling with possible revenue drain, massive unknowns - WestplexNews.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kansas leaders announced a deal to move the Kansas City Chiefs to Kansas, but uncertainties around what the final deal will be have raised concerns about what it could cost taxpayers down the road. 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