{"id":7696,"date":"2025-11-27T05:50:40","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T11:50:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/westplexnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/27\/could-missouris-gerrymandered-congressional-map-backfire-and-boost-democrats-2\/"},"modified":"2025-11-27T05:50:40","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T11:50:40","slug":"could-missouris-gerrymandered-congressional-map-backfire-and-boost-democrats-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/westplexnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/27\/could-missouris-gerrymandered-congressional-map-backfire-and-boost-democrats-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Could Missouri\u2019s gerrymandered congressional map backfire and boost Democrats?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"7-1<\/p>\n

A sticker reads, “7:1 is the compromise,” at a rally held Feb. 7, 2022, where several Republican officials urged attendees to continue to push for a 7-1 Congressional map (Tessa Weinberg\/Missouri Independent).<\/p>\n

In American politics, we\u2019re familiar with gerrymandering \u2014 when a political party redraws district lines to gain an electoral advantage.<\/p>\n

But what happens when that plan backfires and accidentally benefits the opposing party instead? Enter what politicos call the \u201cdummymander.\u201d<\/p>\n

Republicans in several states, including Missouri, followed President Donald Trump\u2019s orders<\/a> to redraw congressional maps to protect the GOP\u2019s House majority. To do it, they carved up blue seats and dispersed those Democratic voters into deep red districts, making many hue more towards pink.<\/p>\n

Earlier this month, Democrats scored massive wins across the country \u2014 seen by many as a rebuke of the president and the prelude to a blue wave in next year\u2019s midterms. Could that wave be large enough to turn carefully constructed GOP maps into a dummymander?<\/p>\n

Republicans worried about that very scenario in Missouri two years ago, when state senators rejected a map<\/a> that would have given the GOP seven of the state\u2019s eight congressional seats. They feared a 7-1 map could swing to a 5-3 map if political winds shifted.<\/p>\n

Those concerns were set aside in September when the legislature redrew the map to break up the Kansas City-based 5th District represented by Democrat Emanuel Cleaver.<\/p>\n

So does this make Missouri a prime candidate for a dummymander?<\/p>\n

Probably not.<\/p>\n

The key difference between 2022, when the 7-1 map was deemed too risky, and 2025, when it was approved, is the retirement of Republican U.S. Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer. His rural St. Elizabeth home made it difficult to keep him in his district while maintaining a GOP advantage everywhere else.<\/p>\n

Luetkemeyer\u2019s replacement, Bob Onder, lives in the St. Louis suburbs, making a gerrymander easier.<\/p>\n

Under the new lines, the previously Democratic 5th District would have voted for Trump by 18 percentage points last year, said Erin Covey of Cook Political Report<\/a>, a national nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes election trends. And Trump would have won the new 4th District \u2014 which now includes more Democratic voters from Kansas City \u2014 by 21 percentage points.<\/p>\n

Even the 2nd District, long targeted by Democrats, became redder under the new map. Covey said the new 2nd District would have voted for Trump by 11 points, compared to 8 points before.<\/p>\n

She notes that the last time the U.S. saw a blue wave \u2014 in 2018 \u2014 the reddest seat Democrats flipped was in a New York district Trump won by 15 points.<\/p>\n

Now, all this could ultimately be moot. A referendum campaign is raising millions to put the new map on the 2026 ballot, which could freeze the current districts in place until an up-or-down statewide vote.<\/p>\n

But if the new map stands, Missouri Democrats shouldn\u2019t be so discouraged that they don\u2019t recruit and run strong candidates, said Kyle Kondik of Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball<\/a>, which also provides nonpartisan political analysis at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the wave comes,\u201d Kondik said, \u201cyou want as many surfboards in the water as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n

Look no further than Tennessee, where Democrats are contesting a special election for a U.S. House seat Trump carried by 22 points. Despite the district\u2019s deep red tilt, Democrats are making a play, hoping an anti-Trump electorate is ready to rebuke the party in power.<\/p>\n

As both parties brace for the chaos of 2026, one thing\u2019s clear: in the game of gerrymandering, the only certainty is that the lines will always keep shifting.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n\t\t\t\tA version of this commentary originally appeared in The Weekender<\/a>, a free Sunday newsletter that catches you up on the important news you might have missed. Sign up today<\/a>.<\/em>\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A sticker reads, “7:1 is the compromise,” at a rally held Feb. 7, 2022, where several Republican officials urged attendees to continue to push for a 7-1 Congressional map (Tessa Weinberg\/Missouri Independent). In American politics, we\u2019re familiar with gerrymandering \u2014 when a political party redraws district lines to gain an electoral advantage. But what happens…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7697,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kadence_starter_templates_imported_post":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7696","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nCould Missouri\u2019s gerrymandered congressional map backfire and boost Democrats? - WestplexNews.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/westplexnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/27\/could-missouris-gerrymandered-congressional-map-backfire-and-boost-democrats-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Could Missouri\u2019s gerrymandered congressional map backfire and boost Democrats? - WestplexNews.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A sticker reads, “7:1 is the compromise,” at a rally held Feb. 7, 2022, where several Republican officials urged attendees to continue to push for a 7-1 Congressional map (Tessa Weinberg\/Missouri Independent). 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